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A
group of scientists at various CG centres and from national
institutions are grappling with the problem of impact assessment
in complex natural resource management (NRM) systems.
To demostrate impact in complex systems is not simple, given
that NRM systems have: multiple scales of interaction and
response; a high frequency of non-linearity, uncertainty,
and time lags; multiple stakeholders with often contrasting
objectives and activities; and a high degree of context specificity.
In the paper we have written, we propose an approach based
on indicators. To make a selection of indicators from the
vast array of possibilities, we suggest that the capital assets
approach to livelihoods may be an appropriate organizing principle.
A number of principles are proposed for each capital asset
- indicators for assessing the impact of NRM should cover
all the principles.
Given the dynamic interaction of the different kinds of capital
assets, impact assessment cannot be based on only one or a
few principles. To cater for multiple stakeholders, participatory
selection of indicators is appropriate, though when cross-site
comparability is required some generic indicators are suitable.
The problems of non-linearities, uncertainty and time lags
in NRM systems suggest that simulation modeling is crucial
for impact assessment. We demonstrate the use of such models
throughout the paper.
Given that a number of indicators are necessary for assessing
impact, the question becomes whether these can be combined
to give an integrative assessment of the performance of an
INRM system. We explore various approaches, e.g. a simple
additive index, as used for the Human Development Index; using
derived variables (e.g. principal components) as the indices
of performance; graphical representation of the five capital
assets using a radar diagram.
Prof. Bruce M. Campbell
b.campbell@cgiar.org
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