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Background and use of SL
The research
focused on vulnerable groups of subsistence farmers mainly
reliant on rain-fed agriculture in Lesotho. It set out with
the insight that because climate is only one stress on livelihoods,
the impact of seasonal forecasts requires assessing not just
agricultural activities that might change in response to forecasts,
but the multiple dimensions of rural livelihoods that constrain
the uptake of information, have secondary effects and determine
the system’s ability to handle future stress. A holistic
assessment of the assets and strategies that rural households
employ enables a holistic assessment of the impact seasonal
forecasts could have on rural livelihoods. The research adopted
a livelihoods approach to explore this situation, enabling
the consideration that the extent of impact of a climate forecast
will depend on the interplay between household assets and
activities and the contexts in which they are situated.
The research
took place in an area in which CARE’s TEAM (Training
of Environmental and Agricultural Management) project, which
focuses on improving livelihoods of the poor, had been in
operation, but was undertaken independently of CARE’s
work. CARE’s livelihood approach was used as a basis
for exploring the interaction of livelihoods and climate,
with some modifications. The changes included adding an environmental
/ climate signal to the ‘context’; treating ‘capitals’
as assets which can have broader implications; adding a dynamic
element so that livelihood trajectories can be assessed, and
livelihood outcomes can be re-evaluated over time; and treating
context and livelihood outcomes as interactive.
The fieldwork
for the study was concentrated on participatory methods including
timelines, seasonal calendars, Venn diagrams, preference ranking,
matrices and focus groups. The research also used surveys
to ask about seasonal forecast use, but it emerged that it
was difficult to get meaningful answers when asking questions
about information that had not been received or used. At the
core of the study was an intensive role-play exercise which
explored what information households presently receive and
how new climate forecast information could be integrated into
seasonal decision making. The exercise used hypothetical examples
to examine scenarios of climate variability and how the availability
of forecast information might affect rural livelihoods differently.
This exercise helped people to think through the process more
thoroughly, and results show that there are a number of low-input
options available to these farmers for responding to the forecast,
and to the forecast authorities for better dissemination.
Adoption, however, is going to require repeated exposure to
the forecast in conjunction with forecast development that
is suited to users’ needs.
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